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The one chart that shows us the way forward
Down To Earth - The Guardian Down to Earth T
Carbon border urged to achieve net zero emissions<br>File photo dated 13/12/09 of a general view of Ratcliffe On Soar power station, as the Government is being urged by MPs to establish a "carbon border" to prevent the UK's drive for net zero emissions being undermined by cheap foreign imports. PA Photo. Issue date: Monday April 4, 2022. The Environmental Audit Committee said imported goods should be subject to the same carbon charging as those made in the UK. See PA story ENVIRONMENT Emissions. Photo credit should read: David Davies/PA Wire
06/04/2023

The path to radically lower emissions tucked away inside the devastating IPCC report

Damian Carrington Damian Carrington

It feels impossible. The world has to slash carbon emissions by almost half in the next seven years to remain on track for just 1.5C of global heating and avoid the worst of climate impacts. Yet emissions are rising.

However, tucked away in the recent (and devastating) landmark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a chart that provides the road map for an escape from catastrophe. It assesses with extraordinary clarity the potential for emissions cuts of more than 40 options. You can view it here.

The simplicity of the chart is deceptive. It was compiled by a team of the world’s best scientists, based on 175 studies. Its power is amplified by the fact that it was signed off by all of the world’s governments, from the cleanest and greenest to the darkest petrostates.

So what does it show? First, solar and wind power are by far the best option, with the potential to cut a staggering 8bn tonnes from annual CO2 emissions by 2030. That is equivalent to the combined emissions of the US and European Union today. Even more startling is that most of that potential can be achieved at lower cost than just continuing with today’s electricity systems.

“What struck me especially was that wind and solar was so big,” Prof Kornelis Blok, at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, told me this week. Blok, who led the work on the chart, identified the winners: “The big five are wind, solar, energy efficiency, stopping deforestation and reducing methane emissions.”

Just as important as the winners in this analysis are the losers. Nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS) each have just 10% of the potential of wind and solar, and at far higher cost. The same applies to bioenergy – burning wood or crops for electricity. It’s no wonder that the UK’s energy strategy, published last week, received significant criticism: it goes heavy on nuclear and CCS, while ignoring onshore wind.

After wind and solar, the biggest prize is stopping the destruction of forests and other wild places, the IPCC scientists found. That has the potential to cut 4bn tonnes of emissions a year by 2030, not far off double the fossil fuel emissions from the whole of Africa and South America today. Including the restoration of degraded forests adds almost 3bn tonnes. Much of this could be achieved for less than $50 per tonne – half the price polluters pay for carbon permits in Europe today.

Energy efficiency in buildings, industry, lighting and appliances remains a no-brainer 4.5bn tonnes a year by 2030 as does slashing methane emissions, particularly from leaky fossil fuel installations. The latter could save the equivalent of about 3bn tonnes.

There are some interesting details too. A shift to “sustainable diets” – ie eating much less red meat in rich nations – could cut 1.7bn tonnes of emissions, equivalent to all the annual pollution from fossil fuel giant Russia. A push towards public transport, bikes and e-bikes has the potential to cut emissions more than the rollout of electric cars, showing both are needed. An often overlooked option burying charcoal in fields (biochar) is relatively costly to implement but potentially huge. Along with avoiding the ploughing of fields, which releases carbon, biochar could save 3.4bn tonnes of CO2 a year.

The IPCC chart is a map of climate optimism. It shows we can cut emissions by half by 2030 with options costing at most $100 per tonne, which is a bargain when set against the further damages that climate inaction will inevitably bring.

The solutions – wind, solar, trees, energy saving and methane cuts – require no new technology. But what they do require is a resource heavily lacking so far: the political will to push aside vested interests and rapidly pursue the policies that will work.

“The chart is a very useful hitlist,” says Blok. “I think every country can take it and see in which areas they could do more. If we don’t achieve [a 50% cut in emissions by 2030], it will not be because of a lack of options.”


The most important number of the climate crisis:
418.6
Atmospheric CO2 in parts per million, 4 April 2023
Source: NOAA
Safe level: 350ppm Latest: 418.6ppm 1960 1990 20131 20231 68.6" above safe level, passed 1990 23.7" increase in past 10 years

Climate Hero – Isaias Hernandez

Isaias Hernandez

As @QueerBrownVegan, 25-year-old Isaias Hernandez has been educating his 115,000 Instagram followers on everything from zero-waste lifestyles to environmental justice and, obviously, the values of veganism.

Raised in Los Angeles in a low-income neighbourhood, Hernandez has grown up with air pollution, and studied environmental science at the prestigious University of California, Berkeley.

In his work, Hernandez also focuses on the impact of climate change on people of colour and the queer community. “For centuries, queer and trans BIPOC have led movements towards advocating the rights of their communities,” he told HuffPost in a recent profile. “The environmental curriculum that we learned glorified white cis straight men who often disregarded and discarded so many queer ecological practices.”

Nominated by reader Daisy Robinson

If you’d like to nominate a climate hero, email [email protected]

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Down To Earth - The Guardian Down to Earth T Carbon border urged to achieve net zero emissions<br>File photo dated 13/12/09 of a general view of Ratcliffe On Soar power station, as the Government is being urged by MPs to establish a "carbon border" to prevent the UK's drive for net zero emissions being undermined by cheap foreign imports. PA Photo. Issue date: Monday April 4, 2022. The Environmental Audit Committee said imported goods should be subject to the same carbon charging as those made in the UK. See PA story ENVIRONMENT Emissions. Photo credit should read: David Davies/PA Wire 06/04/2023 THE PATH TO RADICALLY LOWER EMISSIONS TUCKED AWAY INSIDE THE DEVASTATING IPCC REPORT Damian Carrington Damian Carrington It feels impossible. The world has to slash carbon emissions by almost half in the next seven years to remain on track for just 1.5C of global heating and avoid the worst of climate impacts. Yet emissions are rising. However, tucked away in the recent (and devastating) landmark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a chart that provides the road map for an escape from catastrophe. It assesses with extraordinary clarity the potential for emissions cuts of more than 40 options. You can view it here. The simplicity of the chart is deceptive. It was compiled by a team of the world’s best scientists, based on 175 studies. Its power is amplified by the fact that it was signed off by all of the world’s governments, from the cleanest and greenest to the darkest petrostates. So what does it show? First, solar and wind power are by far the best option, with the potential to cut a staggering 8bn tonnes from annual CO2 emissions by 2030. That is equivalent to the combined emissions of the US and European Union today. Even more startling is that most of that potential can be achieved at lower cost than just continuing with today’s electricity systems. “What struck me especially was that wind and solar was so big,” Prof Kornelis Blok, at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, told me this week. Blok, who led the work on the chart, identified the winners: “The big five are wind, solar, energy efficiency, stopping deforestation and reducing methane emissions.” Just as important as the winners in this analysis are the losers. Nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS) each have just 10% of the potential of wind and solar, and at far higher cost. The same applies to bioenergy – burning wood or crops for electricity. It’s no wonder that the UK’s energy strategy, published last week, received significant criticism: it goes heavy on nuclear and CCS, while ignoring onshore wind. After wind and solar, the biggest prize is stopping the destruction of forests and other wild places, the IPCC scientists found. That has the potential to cut 4bn tonnes of emissions a year by 2030, not far off double the fossil fuel emissions from the whole of Africa and South America today. Including the restoration of degraded forests adds almost 3bn tonnes. Much of this could be achieved for less than $50 per tonne – half the price polluters pay for carbon permits in Europe today. Energy efficiency in buildings, industry, lighting and appliances remains a no-brainer – 4.5bn tonnes a year by 2030 – as does slashing methane emissions, particularly from leaky fossil fuel installations. The latter could save the equivalent of about 3bn tonnes. There are some interesting details too. A shift to “sustainable diets” – ie eating much less red meat in rich nations – could cut 1.7bn tonnes of emissions, equivalent to all the annual pollution from fossil fuel giant Russia. A push towards public transport, bikes and e-bikes has the potential to cut emissions more than the rollout of electric cars, showing both are needed. An often overlooked option – burying charcoal in fields (biochar) – is relatively costly to implement but potentially huge. Along with avoiding the ploughing of fields, which releases carbon, biochar could save 3.4bn tonnes of CO2 a year. The IPCC chart is a map of climate optimism. It shows we can cut emissions by half by 2030 with options costing at most $100 per tonne, which is a bargain when set against the further damages that climate inaction will inevitably bring. The solutions – wind, solar, trees, energy saving and methane cuts – require no new technology. But what they do require is a resource heavily lacking so far: the political will to push aside vested interests and rapidly pursue the policies that will work. “The chart is a very useful hitlist,” says Blok. “I think every country can take it and see in which areas they could do more. If we don’t achieve [a 50% cut in emissions by 2030], it will not be because of a lack of options.” COMPOSTED READS Story of the week Drought or no drought? California left pondering after record winter deluge Drought or no drought? California left pondering after record winter deluge The good news I found love after a painful divorce – and we moved to an uninhabited island I found love after a painful divorce – and we moved to an uninhabited island Tokitae, the oldest orca in captivity, has path to freedom after 50 years Tokitae, the oldest orca in captivity, has path to freedom after 50 years The bad news Ice sheets can collapse at 600 metres a day, far faster than feared, study finds Ice sheets can collapse at 600 metres a day, far faster than feared, study finds Sunak took £500,000 worth of private jet trips in less than a fortnight Sunak took £500,000 worth of private jet trips in less than a fortnight Essential reads Take it from a Canadian, ticks aren’t nice – and climate change means they’re thriving in the UK | Stephen Buranyi Take it from a Canadian, ticks aren’t nice – and climate change means they’re thriving in the UK | Stephen Buranyi ‘Bees are sentient’: inside the stunning brains of nature’s hardest workers ‘Bees are sentient’: inside the stunning brains of nature’s hardest workers Read more on The Guardian The most important number of the climate crisis: 418.6 Atmospheric CO2 in parts per million, 4 April 2023 Source: NOAA Safe level: 350ppm Latest: 418.6ppm 1960 1990 20131 20231 68.6" above safe level, passed 1990 23.7" increase in past 10 years CLIMATE HERO – ISAIAS HERNANDEZ Isaias Hernandez As @QueerBrownVegan, 25-year-old Isaias Hernandez has been educating his 115,000 Instagram followers on everything from zero-waste lifestyles to environmental justice and, obviously, the values of veganism. Raised in Los Angeles in a low-income neighbourhood, Hernandez has grown up with air pollution, and studied environmental science at the prestigious University of California, Berkeley. In his work, Hernandez also focuses on the impact of climate change on people of colour and the queer community. “For centuries, queer and trans BIPOC have led movements towards advocating the rights of their communities,” he told HuffPost in a recent profile. “The environmental curriculum that we learned glorified white cis straight men who often disregarded and discarded so many queer ecological practices.” Nominated by reader Daisy Robinson If you’d like to nominate a climate hero, email [email protected] Guardian newsletters offer an alternative way to get your daily headlines, dive deeper on a topic, or hear from your favourite columnists. We hope this brings something different to your day, and you’ll consider supporting us. For more than 200 years, we’ve been publishing fearless, independent journalism on the events shaping our world. Now, with a daily readership in the millions, we can bring vital reporting to people all around the world, including emails like this, direct to your inbox. As a reader-funded news organisation, we rely on the generosity of those who are in a position to power our work. This support protects our editorial independence, so our reporting is never manipulated by commercial or political ties. We’re free to report with courage and rigour on the events shaping our lives. What’s more, this funding means we can keep Guardian journalism open and free for everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. If you share in our mission for open, independent journalism, and value this newsletter, we hope you’ll consider supporting us today. If you can, please support us on a monthly basis. It takes less than a minute to set up, and you can rest assured that you’re making a big impact every single month in support of open, independent journalism. Thank you. Support the Guardian   Get in touch If you have any questions or comments about any of our newsletters please email [email protected] Manage your emails | You are receiving this email because you are a subscriber to Down To Earth. Guardian News & Media Limited - a member of Guardian Media Group PLC. Registered Office: Kings Place, 90 York Way, London, N1 9GU. Registered in England No. 908396
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