Presidential Election Impact: Consumer Sentiment, SNAP, Immigration, and Homeownership

Numerator Hello Numerator, Regardless of who wins the 2024 presidential election on November 5, the incoming administration will have influence over numerous policies that could directly affect consumer behavior and spending in the long-term. Here are a few insights to help you think ahead to key areas of potential impact and how to contextualize them for your business: Direct Election Impacts: Numerator data shows it’s unlikely that the election itself will have an immediate, widespread impact on consumer behavior. Rather, it's more probable that effects will be felt longer-term, stemming from the economic, social and environmental policies enacted by the new president and his or her administration. Consumer Sentiment: Consumer confidence decreased slightly in August, driven primarily by a 3pt decline in job market confidence. And while declines in spending comfort and financial confidence were also observed, popular consumer cost-saving measures like shopping on sale, using coupons/discount codes, and cooking at home remain down. SNAP Update: A recent refresh of our SNAP research shows that SNAP baskets have shrunk since the end of the Emergency Allotment benefit program. As they pull back, SNAP shoppers are dropping categories like breakfast and bakery while at the same time adding more filling choices like beans, grains and produce this year versus last. Immigration: Numerator research shows that first-generation immigrants have different consumption preferences than US-born consumers. With first-generation households having children at a higher rate, there could be broader impact on the product and flavor preferences of up-and-coming generations like Gen Alpha. Impact of Homeownership: Our “Home Hunters” analysis shows that homeowners spend more across a variety of categories compared to renters, including home appliances, decor, and home improvement products. They also spend more on groceries, less at limited service restaurants, and shift more of their spending online. There are many other policy issues that could shift consumer behavior in the aftermath of this year’s election— from inflation to taxes and tariffs to environmental regulation, and more. If you’d like to proactively explore potential areas of further analysis for your business, drop us a line or contact your Numerator representative today. Cheers, Emily Hill Chief Consulting & Marketing Officer in Contact    |       |       |    © Numerator, Inc. 24 E Washington, Ste 1200, Chicago, IL 60602